Why Experts Almost Always Get It Wrong?

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Psychologists tell us that one reason we desire expert predictions is because we have a “need for closure.” That is, we want an answer to a question. Even if that answer is wrong, we find a wrong answer preferable to enduring a state of confusion and ambiguity. But, then again, if experts are almost always wrong, why should we listen to these psychological experts? Our world is complex and messy. Forecasting requires intellectual teamwork, and the gathering of evidence from different sources. Forecasting involves incalculable contingencies and variables, not just one big idea. People and environments are full of surprises.

THE DEBACLE OF THE OAS’ 49TH GENERAL ASSEMBLY DUE TO ALMAGRO’S DOUBLE STANDARD.  

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The Secretary Almagro built and sustains an implicit reality that is very different to the objective reality the people, the public opinion, the press, the leaders and any honest observer perceive. It is most evident the General Secretary’s efforts to present Castroist Chavist dictatorships as separate and independent processes, unrelated between each other. It is shameful that for a very same matter in which the subjects, the objectives, the criminal methodologies, the acts of reciprocal cooperation, the cover ups and the common crimes, are all identical the Secretary Almagro to present and impose his distorted reality of separating, giving a different treatment to, and thus applying the strategy of the Castroist Chavist system. The OAS’ 49th General Assembly has failed on the most important matters of democracy and human rights, repeating statements regarding Venezuela and Nicaragua, while ignoring Cuba’s dictatorship, and not dealing with Bolivia’s case.

El fracaso de la 49° Asamblea General de la OEA por el doble estándar de Almagro

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El Secretario Almagro construyó y sostiene una realidad virtual muy diferente a la  realidad objetiva que los pueblos, la opinión pública, la prensa, los líderes y cualquier observador honesto perciben. Es claro el esfuerzo del Secretario General para presentar las dictaduras del castro-chavismo como procesos separados e independientes entre sí. Es vergonzoso que para un mismo asunto en el que existen identidad de sujetos, de objeto, de metodologías criminales, de acciones de cooperación recíproca, de encubrimiento y crímenes comunes el Secretario Almagro presente e imponga su realidad de separar y dar tratamiento diferenciado, aplicando así la estrategia del castro-chavismo. La 49 Asamblea General de la OEA ha fracasado en los temas mas importantes de democracia y derechos humanos, repitiendo declaraciones respecto a Venezuela y Nicaragua, ignorando a la dictadura de Cuba y sin tratar el caso de Bolivia.