BOLIVIA, FROM TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY TO DICTATORIAL CONTINUITY

In Bolivia, the dictator was ousted but not the dictatorship.  The process of the transition towards democracy that started with Evo Morales’ resignation, is inexistent.  Interim President Janine Añez’s decision to run as a presidential candidate in elections she was supposed to ensure, has taken her from her role of directing the finding of a solution to be an important part of the problem. Now, instead of a transition to democracy there is dictatorial continuity. Personal ambitions and power feuds have eliminated the national agenda for the transition to democracy earned by the civil resistance movement which ousted the dictator.  The squabbling between contenders has displaced ideas and democracy is still missing.   Bolivia today has a government comprised by those who were opposition members functional to the dictator and who, while ignoring the historical opportunity, chose to keep the dictatorial system that in this way, only changes hands but not essence. The dictatorship can win the elections’ first round and keep itself in power, functional opposition members are in the government and campaign to retain it, Judges and Prosecutors are the same, the accused and persecuted by the dictatorship continue to be compelled to “prove their innocence” instead of being presumably innocent.   Human Rights continue to be violated, there is no Rule of Law, there is no separation and independence of the Branches of Government, there is no guarantee that elections will be fair and clean. Exile is a testimonial to the absence of free political organization and affiliation, and more crisis is on the way.

Bolivia, de la transición a la democracia al continuismo dictatorial

En Bolivia cayó el dictador pero no la dictadura. El proceso de transición a la democracia iniciado con la renuncia de Evo Morales, no existe. La decisión de la presidenta interina Jeanine Añez de ser candidata en las elecciones que tenia la obligación de garantizar, la han llevado de dirigir la solución a ser parte central del problema. En lugar de transición a la democracia hay continuismo dictatorial. Ambiciones personales y disputas por el poder han liquidado la agenda nacional de transición a la democracia ganada por la resistencia civil que echó al dictador. La lucha de personas ha desplazado las ideas y la democracia sigue perdida. Hoy Bolivia tiene un gobierno de los que fueron opositores funcionales al dictador, que ignorando la oportunidad histórica optan por mantener el sistema dictatorial que de esta manera solo ha cambiado de manos pero no de esencia. La dictadura puede ganar la primera vuelta de las elecciones y mantenerse en el poder, los opositores funcionales están en el gobierno y hacen campaña para retenerlo, los jueces y fiscales son los mismos, los acusados y perseguidos por la dictadura siguen obligados a “demostrar su inocencia” en lugar de que se presuma. Se siguen violando los derechos humanos, no hay estado de derecho, no existe división ni independencia de poderes, no hay garantía de que las elecciones sean justas y limpias, el exilio testimonia la ausencia de libre organización política y viene mas crisis.

The Economic Value of Truth

The Prince Harry story and the Corona virus outbreak illustrate the economic value of truth. This is particularly significant in an age where according to Mac MacManus we live in the Post Truth Era.  But where the value of truth will be crystal clear is on the impact of corona virus not only upon China but upon the world. Starting with China the cost of covering up the out break will hit its growth rate by at the very least one percentage point or 10% of GDP. Next it will impact 20% of the value chain in the West and 40% of the value chain in Asia. Mongolia, Cambodia and Laos Myanmar, the Philippines, and Viet Nam come next in terms of value losses. These nations export more than on sixth of their GDP to China. As China reduces economic activity due to the virus impact imports will tend to shrink and so the GDP of these nations. One can measure the impact upon global economic sentiment through the prices of energy and minerals.  Oil prices have so far lost 20% of value and copper 7% since the outbreak. Other losses include delays in monetary unification in China and perhaps even a leadership reshuffle. Should Xi Jinping be absorbed into a collective leadership ending his all too powerful approach to governance he will most probably learn the economic value of truth.