The Venezuelan consequences of the Russian war against Ukraine

It’s the “globalization”. The entrails of the planet’s interconnection have been seen again. This time it was the sanctions against Moscow during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the Venezuelan consequences of that atrocious military operation.

Wars are fought to be won and Russia will lose the one it’s waging now against its peaceful neighbor. Russia can destroy Ukraine but cannot defeat it. When the USSR existed, they lost the war in Afghanistan. They have already lost this war. Why? Because of the disproportionate forces they show and the intensity of the sanctions. The world loves the underdogs. They lost the war because of the isolation that the nations of Europe, USA, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia have decreed. Even the very neutral Switzerland has joined the sanctions.

Ukrainians must be helped in a clever manner. The way to do it is the same that was carried out by the USSR itself during World War II – give, lease or ‘sell’ to the Ukrainian government (for a symbolic amount) the planes and anti-aircraft equipment it needs, and wait for the Ukrainians, the sanctions and the isolation to do their job. It will take time, but they will succeed.

It will be a slow agony, but it will happen. A totally urbanized nation, with an area of more than 600,000 square kilometers (233,000 square miles) and 41 million inhabitants, most of them well educated, requires an occupation force of 600,000 or 700,000 soldiers. The ratio is roughly one soldier per square kilometer to control the people and prevent a rebellion. Russia lacks the funds that this requires. The Ukrainian people are very tough, very resilient.

Ukraine has leaders such as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a Jewish actor, accompanied by his wife, Olema Zelenska, and their two children. The family is willing to share the fate of the people. Zelesnkyy’s Jewish background totally belies Putin’s propaganda that his troops have invaded to “denazify” Ukraine. It is a vile pretext. They are there to rebuild the empire that fell apart from 1989 to 1991.

Zelenskyy is an honest person willing to share the sacrifices. I saw some three videos of him on YouTube, dancing (he’s a great dancer) and playing the piano. They are very funny. He is a magnificent actor with a great talent as a comedian. There’s nothing in bad taste, just joy and laughter.

He was elected in 2019 with a 73% approval rate. Today his support is likely much higher, perhaps 90%. If Russia kills him and kills his family, it will make him a martyr and an example for the Ukrainian people to follow. He came to power without representing any party, because the Ukrainians were fed up with traditional politicians and considered them a bunch of thieves. Maybe they exaggerated, but perceptions are the key to the “electoral justice” of the people.

This conflict has consequences in Latin America. Europe and the United States cannot be left without fuel because solidarity with the Ukrainians would run out. Juan González, Biden’s adviser for Latin America, went to Caracas and spoke with the “official” president Nicolás Maduro. Did González go to Caracas to speed up the collection of the Chevron account, and to see if the Venezuelan oil industry could be revitalized?

But there is an “unofficial” president, Juan Guaidó, who could answer those questions. Guaidó has been recognized by the United States and more than fifty countries. He has ambassadors in different places, among them the one located in Washington DC – Venezuelan lawyer Carlos Vecchio DeMari.

Production has been thoroughly destroyed, like everything in that poor nation. Today Venezuela should be producing five million barrels a day. It barely produces six hundred thousand. It has to import gasoline from Iran to supply Venezuelans. Milton Friedman’s humorous prediction has come true: if the Sahara is handed over to the socialists, they end up importing sand.

In a discreet way, the US must give Maduro an ultimatum. Either he holds truly free elections in three months, or Venezuelans must be armed to free their country. At the same time, Chavismo’s military structure would be destroyed from the air, without placing “boots on the ground” to prevent American casualties. The Venezuelan army, which feels very uncomfortable with Maduro, would put itself at the orders of the opposition.

Probably, Maduro’s kleptocracy would not agree to free elections. The opposition would then have to take power and could increase oil production substantially so that Venezuela grows again and participates in the substitution of Russian exports. Between Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela everything would be solved. And the solidarity of the societies of the US, Canada and the European Union with the Ukrainian people would last as long as necessary. For sure.