Venezuela at a turning point????
Beatrice E. Rangel
While Americans celebrated their Thanksgiving festivities, Venezuelans everywhere in the world began to mobilize against the Maduro regime. All seem to believe that come January the 10th a sort of spell will befall upon the land of Bolivar withering away the criminal regime that holds the nation hostage to the highest interests of organized crime.
Given their traditional lack of cohesiveness all kinds of explanatory narratives are in circulation. Some believe the US Marines to be already stationed in Panama, Curacao and the Virgin Islands. Others are positive that a coup d’état is in the makings through an alliance between dissident Chavistas and the military high rank. Yet others think that the regime will implode and that the ensuing chaos will be an invitation for neighboring countries to intervene. None however seem to agree on how to effectively deal with either of these scenarios in terms of stabilizing the country’s political institutions. There thus are about 100 day before and day after plans in the country and outside the country to the delight of the regime’s leadership that continues to exacerbate and profit from the fragmentation of those that want a return to freedom.
Current situation could not be worst in terms of human suffering. 1/3 of the population is undernourished; 2/3 of the population lack health care including basic vaccinations and first aid treatment; inflation runs at 1M% and the country lost 54% of its GDP in 5 years. Statistics while powerful don’t tell the incommensurate tragedy that surrounds 90% of Venezuelan citizens every day. For them life is a continuing fight for survival with scarce food, scarce to nonexistent medicines and no jobs. About 8% thrives and there is a 2% that continues to live as if the country were in its roaring 70’s when oil prices skyrocketed, and OPEC nations amassed a fortune. These include top government leaders and their immediate acolytes and the sections of the elite that are partners in crime of the greatest looting of public assets in history.
Will this situation hold or are we going to soon face a most ambitioned change in Venezuela? Two theories could help us ascertain the probabilities of change occurring in Venezuela. First is that of precarious equilibrium. Under conditions of precarious equilibrium, a small disturbance causes the system to move out of equilibrium. Current government control of the political situation is based upon a set of unstable variables such as: a terrorized population; cooption of opposition forces; capacity to extract seigniorage fees from foreign investors in natural resource extraction; monopoly over means of production. Any of these variables could change due to conditions that escape the government of Venezuela’s control. Successful seizure through international litigation of Venezuela’s energy assets; popular revolts in several major cities; denial of foreign exchange by holders of exploitation rights to natural resources could happen any time and trigger a loss of balance for the government of Venezuela. A crash could ensue. Such crash would export violence to Colombia and to Brazil given the fact that Venezuela is truffled with armed groups defending organized crime interests.
The latter could intervene to protect its territory and advance its ambitions to get a corridor into the Caribbean Sea. Forces opposing the government could rally behind this effort and add Brazil as a source of support for a regime change. This could open the doors to a duty to protect kind of international alliance entrusted with the task of restoring order. Under the tenets of the precarious equilibrium theory Venezuela is almost certainly heading to a change. Alternatively, there is the theory of mutation.
According to the US Library on medicine “a gene mutation is a permanent alteration in the DNA sequence that makes up a gene, such that the sequence differs from what is found in most people. “ While a systemic mutation is highly unlikely in Venezuela there is a probable chance that the ongoing humanitarian tragedy triggers silent dissent among government supporters and arms wielders. In this case a mutated government alliance could emerge to dislodge from power the current governing clique. Should this be the case, the mutated coalition would need external support to bring the country back to stability. My most recent reading of the tea leaves leads me to believe that we could witness the deployment of both theories in Venezuela over the course of the next 12 months. But the process will not take place on a magic date. I will rather be a silent process that could take many by surprise. As Paul Valery would have it: “change resembles the smooth walk of doves not the thunder of cannons”.
Published by LAHT.com on Monday, December 17th. 2018
*The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author.*
Beatrice Rangel is President & CEO of the AMLA Consulting Group, which provides growth and partnership opportunities in US and Hispanic markets. AMLA identifies the best potential partner for businesses which are eager to exploit the growing buying power of the US Hispanic market and for US Corporations seeking to find investment partners in Latin America.
Previously, she was Chief of Staff for Venezuela President Carlos Andres Perez as well as Chief Strategist for the Cisneros Group of Companies.For her work throughout Latin America, Rangel has been honored with the Order of Merit of May from Argentina, the Condor of the Andes Order from Bolivia, the Bernardo O’Higgins Order by Chile, the Order of Boyaca from Colombia, and the National Order of Jose Matías Delgado from El Salvador.
Beatrice E. Rangel
