Many voices and writers have said so after USA´s humiliating exit from Kabul, but there is no hard evidence to support the claim. At least, for now. It is not any longer the undisputed champion but still is number one, including the military.
From an historical point of view, China’s challenge is to be expected. Step by step seems to be repeating Great Britain’s success against 19th century rivals and United States’ activities to displace England in the 20th century. History itself teaches us that in its millennial existence, China has been more time more powerful over the west that the other way around.
Time to mention an important book published in 1987, one that should be obligatory reading for decision makers, including the State and the Defense departments. In the Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, well known historian professor Paul Kennedy looks back five centuries, and his thesis is that a great power projects its power according to the resources at its disposal, until the moment it does not have enough money to pay for supremacy, and this is the starting point for its decline. Among the cases reviewed was Spain, major great power of its time when it conquered Latin America and Florida.
We have witnessed China´s many accomplishments and for some people is only a matter of how long it will take to beat the USA, either years of decades. Nevertheless, hard data and indicators show a still healthy outlook for America.
Firstly, no country is rival to the USA in how attractive is its society for the rest of the world, as it is shown by the many immigrants who want to live the American dream, either legally or illegally, even risking their lives.
It is also the case of its economy, vigorous and creative, and the confidence provided by the depth of their financial markets and the dollar as reserve currency for many countries around the world.
Here, the mentioned military factor can be included, from light to atomic weapons; submarines, sea carriers and the space can be mentioned from a long list.
Fourthly, Science and Technology, as one of the most decisive factors in the 21st century, where USA’s advantage is still devastating to rivals, as is the case, for example of scientific publications and patents. Also manifests in its universities, universally recognized as the best.
To say that USA is the number one in economic and military might will not produce any difference with many of its predecessors. Nevertheless, there is an important element which differentiate USA from other powers or empires.
Besides the hard power needed by any major player, USA is unique in terms of soft power. No other country has had it and no other has it today in terms of the extraordinary influence of its popular culture. Its TV series, movies, musical productions, a book industry with bestsellers from fiction to science. This popular culture is so successful that it is consumed around the world.
The United States has exported to the rest of the world everyday habits as fast food, sports and fashion. This is a strong ideological and good will element, without resemblance in the rise and fall of great powers. Even to protest in the streets against its foreign policy, USA’s popular culture symbols are widely used. It is at the same time an ideological and a political weapon of which USA has not made a good use.
In other words, to influence other cultures, even to try to change them, Hollywood has had a major impact than invading armies, power which is relevant and new in historical terms.
Lastly, although could be in the first place, is the English language, where United States only followed the footprints of the British empire. Today is the modern equivalent of Rome´s Latin, the main vehicle for business, science, entertainment, travel, and person to person communication, including Chinese, Japanese and Germans.
Internet example is valuable. In the 90s it was thought that the new technology would benefit the then vigorous Japan, but it was the perfect showcase for American ingenuity and innovation. Japan would start a comparative decline and fall into a process of stagnation which still last.
China is no match for American soft power. It does not have today a popular culture that can be exported as neither it is its society’s model. It has no equivalent of Disney and there is no mass attraction for its universities and no immigration pressure.
Which is then the problem of the United States? Why it seems to be asleep to Chinese rise?
The answer is not abroad, but inside United States. It is too divided and too polarized. Much worse, part of its elite seems to have lost confidence in the moral and ethical superiority of its model, what came to be known as the American way of life, in cultural war with many of its traditions.
Today there is no will like the one which confronted the extinct Soviet Union, with no recognizable unity of purpose and no desire to lead those who share the same values in other countries.
Perhaps it needs a mission, which can only come from a bipartisan foreign policy which gives the country a sense of urgency and union in terms of a new international architecture to replace today’s very obsolete system of international organizations. In that endeavor, United States would be acting exactly as it did in the 20th century, when it was the most important force behind the extinct League of Nations and in 1946 the then novel United Nations.
And no other country is today capable of carry out that task, exactly what is needed by a great power, but only in case it wants to proclaim that it does not want to be displaced.
(*) Lawyer (University of Chile, University of Barcelona); Ph.D. in Political Science (Government, University of Essex); presidential candidate (Chile, 2013)
“The opinions published herein are the sole responsibility of its author”.
