2020 has been regarded as the black swan of the 21st century, thus most people can hardly wait to see the year end. Superstitious as most humans are they tend to believe that the dawn of the new year will melt away all disruptions caused by 2020. But 2020 promises to be a time release kind of evil. Its presence and impact promises to be with us for an extended period that no one seems to ascertain how long it will be. This has many heads of state in our region cliff hanging as their floor has moved and their grasp of power has slipped and here while there are no signs that the pendulum will swing back to the pre 2020 situation.
One such head of state is Mr Miguel Diaz Canel. In 2019 his ascent to the presidency of Cuba was seen by many as an auspicious sign. He represented a generation away from the that of the founders of the Cuban revolution. He had not been part of the Moncada Military base attack. He had not chow chowed with Che Guevara and was not responsible for the execution of opponents. Maybe he could better understand the need to move forward. This was more or less the line of thinking of most Cuban watchers, at least in the US . From the economic view point Cuba could still rely in the generous oil apportionment from Venezuela. This provided the economy with badly needed foreign exchange and with energy to power daily life, as the Cuban regime wiped out the country’s industrial and trade foundations. But, alas by 2020 Venezuela’s oil production accelerated its free fall to reach 358,000 bd. This not only is insufficient to honor the long term contracts to paying clients but even denies Venezuela the possibility of buying gasoline a product it ceased to produce about four years ago.
Under these circumstances Mr Diaz Canel is contemplating the same destiny as Mikhail Gorbachev. One day he might wake up to a nation that has withered away. And the signs seem to be rather clear. Cuba has failed to secure financing by any European country. Russia while politically supportive has no free cash to deploy in Cuba. China knows too well the price tag paid by the Soviet Union to support Cuba. It will thus stay away from any financial commitment. Thus people are beginning to experience a period of starvation not known even during the so called “special period” that followed the collapsed of the Soviet Union. But the difference between today and those grim days are enormous. First, there is no Fidel Castro at the helm of the pirate ship. Mr Castro seemed to have a strong following among Western leaders that was completely unwarranted by the results of his leadership. Having sank one of the most prosperous economies in Latin America and reduced the standard of living of his people he managed to convince the world that the United States was the culprit. Poised as a victim of the US greed Mr Castro was able to get financing from several European nations, Mexico and other Latin American countries that through Panama managed to do business with Cuba. Today none of these moves are possible. First because all Latin American nations are economically wounded from the Covid 19 pandemic. Second, because contrary to the special period, Cubans now have enjoyed at least three years of relaxation of exchange rules and they have had access to mobile phones; social networks and other means of communication with the outer world. These channels are bringing to them a reality that widely differs from the official story. Thus they are rebelling against the regime. And the rebellion is led not by dissidents or organized opponents but by artists that feel their right to create is threaten. In short Mr Dias Canel could be the next victim of the 2020 black swan and end on the other side of the strait of Florida either as refugee or as undocumented migrant.
One such head of state is Mr Miguel Diaz Canel. In 2019 his ascent to the presidency of Cuba was seen by many as an auspicious sign. He represented a generation away from the that of the founders of the Cuban revolution. He had not been part of the Moncada Military base attack. He had not chow chowed with Che Guevara and was not responsible for the execution of opponents. Maybe he could better understand the need to move forward. This was more or less the line of thinking of most Cuban watchers, at least in the US . From the economic view point Cuba could still rely in the generous oil apportionment from Venezuela. This provided the economy with badly needed foreign exchange and with energy to power daily life, as the Cuban regime wiped out the country’s industrial and trade foundations. But, alas by 2020 Venezuela’s oil production accelerated its free fall to reach 358,000 bd. This not only is insufficient to honor the long term contracts to paying clients but even denies Venezuela the possibility of buying gasoline a product it ceased to produce about four years ago.
Under these circumstances Mr Diaz Canel is contemplating the same destiny as Mikhail Gorbachev. One day he might wake up to a nation that has withered away. And the signs seem to be rather clear. Cuba has failed to secure financing by any European country. Russia while politically supportive has no free cash to deploy in Cuba. China knows too well the price tag paid by the Soviet Union to support Cuba. It will thus stay away from any financial commitment. Thus people are beginning to experience a period of starvation not known even during the so called “special period” that followed the collapsed of the Soviet Union. But the difference between today and those grim days are enormous. First, there is no Fidel Castro at the helm of the pirate ship. Mr Castro seemed to have a strong following among Western leaders that was completely unwarranted by the results of his leadership. Having sank one of the most prosperous economies in Latin America and reduced the standard of living of his people he managed to convince the world that the United States was the culprit. Poised as a victim of the US greed Mr Castro was able to get financing from several European nations, Mexico and other Latin American countries that through Panama managed to do business with Cuba. Today none of these moves are possible. First because all Latin American nations are economically wounded from the Covid 19 pandemic. Second, because contrary to the special period, Cubans now have enjoyed at least three years of relaxation of exchange rules and they have had access to mobile phones; social networks and other means of communication with the outer world. These channels are bringing to them a reality that widely differs from the official story. Thus they are rebelling against the regime. And the rebellion is led not by dissidents or organized opponents but by artists that feel their right to create is threaten. In short Mr Dias Canel could be the next victim of the 2020 black swan and end on the other side of the strait of Florida either as refugee or as undocumented migrant.
