Gustavo Covacevich words at the Forum “Chile after the rejection of the Constituent Assembly”, held at the Interamerican Institute for Democracy on September 14, 2022.
Chile has managed to escape for the second time from communism. First for the weapons and now for the vote. The first, on September 11, 1973 through the Armed Forces obeying the constitutional call of the Chamber of Deputies and the Supreme Court that declared the Government of S. Allende illegal and outside the Constitution and this time, 50 years later, in a act of common sense and civic maturity, 13 million citizens (historical record) voted 62% against 38%, against a N. Castro Chavista Constitution that threatened our freedoms and the future and progress of our country.
-RESULTS.
-The numbers for Sunday, September 4 were overwhelming:
-It won the rejection in all the Regions of the country (19) and, surprisingly, to an even greater extent in the indigenous areas that were offered almost an independent country, and it also won by far in all the poorest districts of the country. Remarkable sanity of the humblest people.
-The approval only won and marginally in 8 communes of the 346 communes (-2%) and in Santiago, the most disputed area, only in the group of 18-30 years of the upper strata, that is, in the children of welfare What a contradiction right?
– It is essential to mention to put things in context and combat the lies of the left, that in the Entry Plebiscite only 50% of the electoral roll voted and that 78% or 5 million who voted in favor of a NC, for Therefore, it was never “the majority of the people” as the left likes to repeat and misinform.
-On the other hand, this Sunday, September 4, Chile showed, now with compulsory voting, the largest vote in its history with 13 million voters (equivalent to 86% of the electoral roll) of which 62% or 8 million people voted for Rejection against the 5 Million who voted for Approval and much higher even than those who voted for Boric (56%) in the second Presidential round and very important also: more than 3 million over the vote at the beginning of the NC.
-But the result of 62% was not only overwhelming, but the left lost a million votes compared to the initial vote of 2020.
WHAT IS THE READING OR MESSAGE OF THIS PLEBISCITE? DO WE WIN TO LOSE?
What happened this Sunday the 4th was not only a vote to reject a text foreign to our reality, totalitarian, Chavista in its lack of freedoms and a copy of the Bolivian in its indigenist, but, it must be emphasized, it was a triple defeat:
First, a defeat of the proposed text in this NC sole object of the CC
Second, a defeat also of the mechanism and of the process that gave rise to it, which, due to its biased and extreme conformation, contaminated and annulled any possible discussion in the CC and that allowed us to clearly see the dogmatic and totalitarian spirit day by day and
Third, a clear and great defeat for the Government and its program as it completely unites its destiny with that of the NC, according to statements by its main spokespersons and to make it even worse, when it decided to embark on an open electoral intervention never seen before: the Pdte B instead of dedicating himself to governing, he preferred to personally visit 29 communes in the country, apart from deploying many of his Ministers in a supposed “information campaign”.
-Of course, these affirmations about a broad and generalized rejection and that go beyond the rejection of the text of a NC, will be discussed and denied by trying to circumscribe it only to a text that would be, of course! perfectible, improvable and approved in a second attempt (and if not, in a third? until it turns out, as happened in Venezuela and Bolivia) through a new process to which they want to drag the political forces of Opposition, which is the great and next subject that already ignites the spirits in these moments in our country.
AND NOW WHAT, THEN?
We focus on a “constitutionalitis” or Art 142 of the Constitution is respected, which says that once the proposal is rejected in the Plebiscite, the current Constitution governs, period! Article modified precisely to give rise to that ultimately failed NC process.
In other words, they are once again given the opportunity, as in Venezuela and Bolivia, to continue trying until their totalitarian project is approved, but “attenuated” for now, to continue advancing without pause and without haste… or the Government, the Congress and the institutions begin once and for all to work on the urgent needs of the people and that were the real reason for the protests, first peaceful in October 2019 and that is what the majority of the population wants and needs.
Because let us remember it once again, a NC never figured among the demands and aspirations of the people: the agreement for a NC was the result of terrorism, the subsequent violence and blackmail organized by the PC and the extreme left and the surrender of a government weak unable to bring order and control public order. And that is why this process is illegitimate from its origin, it is the son of violence!
Now, if it is about the Constitution, basically two alternatives are being considered.
A NC as proposed by President B and his Government (and how many more CCs?) or the current Constitution promulgated in 2005 by the socialist R. Lagos and recently modified for the purposes of this Plebiscite is respected, as established in its aforementioned article 142 .
-Open alternatives that are already discussed and that run faster than expected:
1-No to a new CC and YES to reforms from Congress with a Commission of Experts, as historically and for the most part it has been done throughout our republican life or is going towards
2-Another Convention, now they say “improved” or “limited”, with or without a Commission of Experts, with or without the right to speak and vote… or another alternative, if there is one. Both alternatives have been defined, yes, and we hope that it will make a difference, from Congress, a place where, for sure, the pressure from the Government and the harassment of the forces of the extreme left will be transferred.
It is there and now where the game of our future is played again. And the opinions in our Opposition sector, unfortunately, are very divided.
A part of the right or center-right as they like to call themselves, have already given in to the idea of a new CC with improvements, they say: … that “commitments must be fulfilled”, alluding to a campaign of “Reject to improve” in opposition to to one of “Approve to Reform”, a campaign that has been shown was not supported by the 8 million who rejected it, taking into account that its militants do not exceed 100 thousand and that it had the crucial support of the “Yellows”, which they were a part of the center left and also of the former Concertación.
As I said, improving certain aspects, reducing its size from 155 to 100 and incorporating in that number some “better prepared or expert” participants and all chosen within the parties, now without independents… and various other things in evolution.
My reaction and that of many right-wing independents who mostly gave the Rejection the victory, is that the path of a NC and even worse without an Entry Plebiscite to validate it, will inevitably favor compromise and replace some of the bad ideas that already we met and instead of being a “very bad” NC it will only be “bad” but only for a while, until they manage to add all the rest that today they could not, in successive reforms, to reach the same destination, only with more time . The PC knows how to wait.
Making a NC, as has been demonstrated in Chile and in other countries, is a very serious and complex issue for experts and not for assemblies where the ignorant, resentful and ideologically poisoned predominate.
Costs, Times and Emergencies.
-He spent and squandered a fortune.
More than 15 months alone were invested in the process and almost three years in total and more than 70 million dollars ($68 million according to MegaNoticias) were spent in the midst of an environment of growing polarization and social conflicts while economic and social uncertainty increased and the economic crisis worsened, which also had external reasons, of course.
We are facing a very serious economic and financial situation.
Internally, inflation reaches 14.1%, the highest in 31 years; gasoline has risen 38.7% in 12 months, real wages fall for 10 consecutive months, now only in July -3%, ; unemployment reaching 7.8% and 17% of the labor force; a significant drop in investment and a significant drop in economic activity in general and more in some sectors of the economy such as construction, for example, where building permits fell 54% and sales by 34% so far. The foregoing, until it is the economy that will grow the least in 2023 in Latin America, according to the IMF with projections of a negative GDP between -1.5% and -0.5% for 2023 according to the BC and with an unsustainable current account deficit of more than from -6% to fall (perhaps) to -4.5% next year.
If we add to this the fall in our international reserves in the last year (August 21-August 22) from 51Bn to 41Bn or 20%, to which we must add the increase in the service of our external debt that rises by 78% in a year, from US 466MM to US 829 this year (Law Ppto 2022, Treasury Public Treasury, S of Debt) In short, the situation is very bad and a technically well done, prudent economic plan is required, with social peace and certainty and that today it is not seen how it could be achieved.
What are the Emergencies.
1. First of all, reestablish the rule of law and security, which shows the worst known historical rates: When comparing the first half of this year with the same period in 2021, we can see that the crimes with the greatest social connotation have increased by 52%. Among them, violent thefts of vehicles stand out, which have doubled; robberies with violence, which have increased by 71%, and homicides, which have risen by 50% (LyD).
2. It is important and urgent to approve, once and for all, the pension and health projects that have slept in Congress while waiting for radical and re-foundational reforms that aim at single state systems. Now will be the moment to return to sanity and to improve them technically for the benefit of their affiliates and participants and not of the politicians.
3. And finally, dismantle in Congress or in the new NC attempt the threats to private ownership of water, mining projects and private property (eliminating the concept of expropriations at a fair price instead of at the market price) ;
-Maintain an Independent Judiciary and Central Bank, pillars of Chile’s institutionality and economic success, and rethink the Tax Reform, which threatens private property, investment and growth.
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